Jump to content

  • Welcome to Auto Parts Forum

    Whether you are a veteran automotive parts guru or just someone looking for some quick auto parts advice, register today and start a new topic in our forum. Registration is free and you can even sign up with social network platforms such as Facebook, X, and LinkedIn. 

     

The Inconvenient Truth About Electric Vehicles


Recommended Posts

Electric vehicles, specifically those that are 100% battery powered (BEVs) have everyone “amped up” and anxious to get the most “current” projections on sales, share of the car parc and long-term impact on the aftermarket parts and service business. The impact of BEVs will be felt slowly over a very long time. But the time to get educated and prepared is now.

Beginning with the joint industry report at AAPEX from the Auto Care Association and AASA and continuing with presentations at the AASA Technology Council and Vision conference this spring, forecasts about BEV sales and their trajectory of market share have fascinated and frightened those who grew up with and depend upon the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) for their livelihood. The consensus I heard is that the demise of the internal combustion engine has been exaggerated and the growth forecasts of BEV market share are optimistic considering the limits of current battery technology, tepid consumer demand resulting from the high cost, and shortcomings in charging infrastructure and the electric grid.

There is no secret that CO2 emissions are responsible for changing the chemistry of our atmosphere and warming the planet, and vehicle tailpipe emissions are a major contributor to the problem. So, every alternative form of vehicle propulsion has been thoroughly explored in the last decade and Lithium-Ion batteries are the leading technology for the time being. Tailpipe emissions from the vehicle are eliminated, there’s instant and plentiful torque and the new models are even starting to look cool.

But, BEV adoption has lagged below the projections of futurists and will continue to face a number of challenges and headwinds. To put this in perspective, BEVs in the U.S. account for barely 1% of the fleet in 2021. That market share will double to 2% in 2025. By the end of this decade, BEVs will account for 6% of the domestic parc — and the vast majority of those will still be under factory warranty. It won’t be until 2035 that the BEV share rises to double digits. These numbers are from the joint industry report issued at AAPEX and represent the Base Adoption scenario. The numbers could be lower if development and investment lag, or they could be higher under the rosiest of assumptions.

A few inconvenient truths about battery-powered vehicles have jumped out at me from my research:

1) Consumers have expressed reluctance to invest in a BEV unless their range-anxiety is satisfactorily addressed, and they can confidently head out on a road trip without the need to plan their itinerary around rest stops at the charging station. Derek Kaufman from Schwartz Advisors told the AASA Vision Conference audience that the government has a goal of investing $5 billion on an additional 500,000 charging stations. That’s great, but the need is for 4X that number. Until the number of charging stations is dramatically increased, depending on a BEV will require changes to driving and consumer behavior.

2) Current battery technology can be charged with standard household current. But, it takes all night, and the full range potential is not achieved. Fast-charging DC stations typically cost 3 to 4 times as much per KWh limiting their use unless absolutely necessary. Brian Daugherty, chief technology officer at MEMA, explained that a typical home consumes 1.2 kilowatts (KW) per hour on average. A direct current (DC) fast charger on the side of the interstate uses 300 KW or the equivalent demand on the grid of 250 homes. Imagine your favorite rest stop equipped with a couple dozen charging stations on Memorial Day weekend with everyone plugged in for a fast charge to get them to the beach. The entire East Coast will go dim.

3) Just as concerning as the infrastructure is the source of the minerals that go into modern batteries. China controls 70-80% of the lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel and graphite use in electrodes and Russia produces more than 20% of battery-grade nickel. Half of the cobalt is supplied from the Republic of the Congo, with a dismal record of child-labor abuses. But, battery technology is rapidly advancing and professor and inventor John Goodenough, who is credited with inventing the current state-of-the-science Lithium-Ion battery, recently co-developed a rapid-charging, high-cycle, non-flammable glass battery. Years of testing and development are needed to prove the viability of this tech in automotive applications. But, apparently, the 2019 Nobel Prize winner for Chemistry did not think Lithium-Ion battery technology was … Good Enough.

4) Finally, it is worth remembering that switching from a gasoline ICE to a BEV that plugs into the electric grid is simply a trade off from tailpipe emissions to smokestack emissions until we have a much higher portion of our electricity supplied from renewable sources (solar, hydro and wind). Even in our current position, battery electric cars generate only 50% of the emissions of a comparable gasoline vehicle, even when battery manufacturing is included in the calculation, according to Cultura.org.

With all that said, battery electric vehicles are here to stay, and their share of the market will slowly increase. Costs will come down, range and performance will go up, and the investment of the OEMs and the government will ensure that electrics command a significant share of our transportation system in the future. Internal combustion engines are not facing extinction and will remain relevant to hybrid vehicles, heavy equipment and large SUVs and trucks for many decades. As Kaufman explained, electrics will be the preferred solution for small package delivery fleets, autonomous urban vehicles and fleet-shared transportation solutions. The best thing for an aftermarket parts or service business with an eye on the long game is to take your local Avis, Uber or Waymo executive out to lunch and talk about their need to eliminate underperformed maintenance and deliver 100% up-time with a reliable supply of aftermarket parts.

The aftermarket should do what we’ve always done when faced with something new and uncertain, adapt and pay attention. Change is coming faster than ever, but we are Essential — regardless of the propulsion technology.

The post

link hidden, please login to view
appeared first on
link hidden, please login to view
.

link hidden, please login to view

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Similar Topics

    • By NAPA
      It’s no surprise that electrification has spread into every corner of the automotive world. From humble local delivery vans to high-voltage track monsters, the gamut of EVs on the road is impressive. So, it is no shock that manufacturers recognized the inherent benefit electric motors have in delivering a ton of torque at initial startup. That gives an EV tremendous power for launching off the line, something enthusiast drivers appreciate. Here’s the top hot rod electric cars that are guaranteed to get your blood pumping in 2024.
      Porsche Taycan – 750 Horsepower
      Porsche launched the
      link hidden, please login to viewin 2019 as its first dedicated electric car. Keeping with Porsche naming conventions, the highest output version, Taycan Turbo S, is the top-of-the-line in terms of performance. No, there is not a “turbo” in the traditional sense, but the Turbo and Turbo S models do get a nice first bump of recognition with the powerful name. Driver’s get a 2.6 second 0–60 mph launch and a 161 mph top speed for track days. Mercedes-AMG EQS – 751 Horsepower
      It should come as no surprise that the in-house hot rod division of Mercedes-Benz would get its insulated-gloved hands into the EV market. While the
      link hidden, please login to view is not the first electric AMG vehicle (the 2013 Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG Electric Drive gets that nod), it is the first on a dedicated electric vehicle chassis. Mercedes claims a 3.4 second 0–60 mph time, which is .1 second faster than the combustion-engine Camaro ZL1 Coupe from the same year.  Rivian R1T – 835 Horsepower

      link hidden, please login to view may only sell one vehicle (the SUV is pretty much identical to the truck), but sales show the payoff of extreme product focus. link hidden, please login to view buyers can select the quad motor version for combined 835 horsepower and a 3.0 second 0–60 mph time. That’s faster than a Dodge Challenger Hellcat Redeye, plus it has enough room to pick up a load of mulch from the local garden center. GMC Hummer EV – 1,000 Horsepower
      It feels kind of silly labeling the hulking
      link hidden, please login to view as an EV hot rod, but stay with us. When the spec sheet shows three motors with a total of up to 1,000 horsepower and a 0–60 mph time of 3.0 seconds flat, that’s hustling. And when that hustle is brought by something the size of a tiny house, it is even more impressive. Sure “Watts to Freedom” mode sounds silly, but it is akin to a tank getting shot out of a cannon, so it matches. Tesla Model S Plaid – 1,020 Horsepower
      When it comes to drag racing electric cars,
      link hidden, please login to view was likely the first manufacturer to grab driver’s attention. Fans of the 1987 movie “Spaceballs” should get Tesla’s name reference — setting light speed to Plaid. Three motors with a combined 1,020 peak horsepower rocket this sedan to 60 mph in just 1.99 seconds. That’s a full second faster than a new Corvette. It also rips the quarter mile in 9.23 seconds at 155 mph. Just how quick is that? If you want to race your Tesla link hidden, please login to view Plaid at a sanctioned NHRA drag race, it will need a roll cage and a parachute! Tesla Model X Plaid – 1,020 Horsepower
      Tesla took the same drivetrain as the already insane Model S Plaid and put it in an SUV, thus creating the
      link hidden, please login to view Plaid. The added size and weight took a toll as 0–60 mph now takes 2.5 seconds, but the quarter mile time is just a touch slower at 9.9 seconds. That’s two seconds faster than a Dodge Durango SRT Hellcat. Plus, it has cool gullwing doors and can tow 5,000 pounds. Lucid Air – 1,234 Horsepower
      Now we’re getting into ridiculous territory. Dropping $250k on a
      link hidden, please login to view Sapphire gets you 1,234 horsepower and a top speed of 205 mph. That money also gets you to 60 mph in 1.89 seconds and an 8.95 second quarter mile time. All this in a four-door sedan that can go more than 400 miles on a single charge. Sure, a Bugatti Veyron will outrun it on the top end, but the Lucid Air Sapphire will make it claw for every inch on the way to 200 mph. Rimac Nevera – 1,914 Horsepower
      For our pick of the baddest electric hot rod, we have the Rimac Nevara. This is beyond simply an electric sports car and ventures into pure hypercar territory with a sleek body to match. Its 1.74 second 0–60 mph time set a
      link hidden, please login to view in May of 2023 along with a slew of other acceleration world records. It can hit 249 mph in just 21 seconds. It can also go from a dead stop to 249 mph and back to a dead stop in just less than 30 seconds. And, just for silliness, Rimac set a world record for the fastest driving…in reverse (171 mph). Now, for the big downside, that mind bending speed will set you back $2.2 million dollars. NAPA Is Your One-Stop EV Shop link hidden, please login to view
      So, there you have it. Electric hot rod options from tame to insane. Rumors still surround a possible electric muscle car from Dodge in the form of the Charger Daytona SRT Banshee, but no official production date is set. Looking to build your own EV muscle car?
      link hidden, please login to view is an electric motor swap kit that you should find available to the public soon.  Thinking of upgrading to the electric vehicle lifestyle, but you need a complete at-home charging station setup? NAPA has you covered thanks to a partnership with
      link hidden, please login to view, which can assist you in purchasing the link hidden, please login to view for your needs, and correctly link hidden, please login to view in your garage. And remember, NAPA Auto Parts has a long history of supplying quality parts for at-home mechanics restoring muscle cars. Tackle your
      link hidden, please login to view with the best cooling fans, cold air intakes, control modules and more. Simply shop link hidden, please login to view or head over to your local link hidden, please login to view store. Sign up for link hidden, please login to view now to start earning Points—earn 100 Points, and you get $5 off your next purchase automatically! Photo courtesy of
      link hidden, please login to view. The post
      link hidden, please login to view appeared first on link hidden, please login to view.
      link hidden, please login to view
    • By Dorman Products
      Easy sun visor repairs for Ford/Mercury/Lincoln vehicles!
    • By Dorman Products
      Rugged chassis solutions for severe-duty vehicles | Dorman Premium RD
    • By Counterman
      Motul recently launched Motul 8100 Power for the North American market.
      Motul developed 8100 Power specifically for performance street vehicles that do not require a dedicated track motor oil such as Motul 300V, the company said.
      The 100% synthetic, ester-based engine oil replaces and expands upon the Motul Sport line and is available in four viscosities for use in naturally aspirated and forced-induction gasoline and diesel engines.
      “Engineered with modern performance engines in mind, 8100 Power provides the ideal balance between performance and protection,” said Motul USA Marketing Manager Nolan Browning. “With 8100 Power, we are taking what we’ve learned from our decades as a leader in motorsport lubrication technology and applying it to high-performance and tuned street cars. It’s the perfect addition to our line of motor oils for everything from general service to extreme track use.”
      The new line of
      link hidden, please login to view is specially formulated to ensure performance and reliability for turbocharged or naturally aspirated light-duty diesel or gasoline engines across a broad range of temperatures and engine RPMs, according to Motul. Motul 8100 Power is engineered to protect against the risk of low-speed pre-ignition in small-displacement turbocharged direct-injection engines. It delivers oil-film resistance at elevated temperatures for peak engine power, torque and anti-wear protection, thanks to a unique combination of ester base oils and friction modifiers, according to the company.
      Motul 8100 Power also maintains compatibility with manufacturer warranties with vehicles requiring API SP-grade lubricants as well as full compatibility with bioethanol (E85 and E100), LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), CNG (compressed natural gas) and diesel fuels.
      Motul 8100 Power is available in 0W-20, 5W-30, 5W-40 and 5W-50 viscosities in 1-liter and 5-liter containers. The high-performance lubricant already has been recommended and extensively tested for high-performance vehicles at manufacturer-recommended drain intervals.
      The post
      link hidden, please login to view appeared first on link hidden, please login to view.
      link hidden, please login to view
    • A-premium Auto Parts:5% OFF with Code GM5.
    • By Counterman
      The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced a notice of proposed rulemaking that would require automatic emergency braking (AEB) and pedestrian AEB systems on passenger cars and light trucks.
      The proposed rule is expected to dramatically reduce crashes associated with pedestrians and rear-end crashes, according to the agency.   
      NHTSA projects that the proposed rule, if finalized, would save at least 360 lives a year and reduce injuries by at least 24,000 annually.
      In addition, the AEB systems would result in significant reductions in property damage caused by rear-end crashes, according to NHTSA. Many crashes would be avoided altogether, while others would be less destructive.   
      “Today, we take an important step forward to save lives and make our roadways safer for all Americans,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said on May 31. “Just as lifesaving innovations from previous generations like seatbelts and air bags have helped improve safety, requiring automatic emergency braking on cars and trucks would keep all of us safer on our roads.”   
      The
      link hidden, please login to view is a key component of the department’s National Roadway Safety Strategy (NRSS), which was launched in January 2022 to address the national crisis in traffic fatalities and serious injuries. The NRSS adopts the safe-system approach and builds multiple layers of protection with safer roads, safer people, safer vehicles, safer speeds and better post-crash care, according to the agency. As part of the safe system approach, the proposed rule highlights safer vehicles and the DOT’s effort to expand vehicle systems and features that help to prevent crashes.    An AEB system uses various sensor technologies and sub-systems that work together to detect when the vehicle is close to crashing, and then automatically applies the vehicle brakes if the driver has not done so, or applies more braking force to supplement the driver’s braking as necessary to avoid or mitigate the severity of the crash.   
      “We’ve seen the benefits of the AEB system in some passenger vehicles already even at lower speeds, and we want to expand the use of the technology to save even more lives,” NHTSA Chief Counsel Ann Carlson said. “That’s why our proposed rule would require all cars to be able to stop and avoid contact with a vehicle in front of them up to 62 miles per hour. And the proposal would require pedestrian AEB, including requiring that AEB recognize and avoid pedestrians at night,” “This proposed rule is a major safety advancement.”
      If adopted as proposed, nearly all U.S. light vehicles (gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or less) would be required to have AEB technology three years after the publication of a final rule.  
      This notice is a direct response to a provision in the
      link hidden, please login to view to create a rule to establish minimum performance standards requiring that all passenger vehicles manufactured for sale in the United States be equipped with an AEB system. A preliminary regulatory impact analysis that presents the benefits and costs associated with the proposed rule also link hidden, please login to view.  The post
      link hidden, please login to view appeared first on link hidden, please login to view.
      link hidden, please login to view

×
  • Create New...