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Automotive Aftermarket Outperforms Expectations in 2022


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The automotive aftermarket grew by 9.7% in 2022, outperforming previous forecasts of 8.5% growth.

With high inflation persisting, the industry is expected to grow an additional 8.1% in 2023 before settling to more modest – but still substantial – growth rates that will continue to make the industry an attractive one for investors.

The data comes from the 2023 Joint Channel Forecast Model report, published by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, in partnership with S&P Global.

This year’s report finds that despite the recent increase in economic strain for many Americans due to rising costs, the industry continues to show its reliability and ability to adapt across the service and retail sectors, continually adjusting to meet demand in an ever-dynamic market.

While new-vehicle inventory is being replenished as the supply chain pressures have eased somewhat across the industry, the vehicle parc continues to age, and increasing costs of both new and used vehicles continue to encourage owners to keep their vehicles longer. These factors have provided tailwinds to the automotive aftermarket as vehicle miles traveled have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

“Consistency, reliability and adaptability – that’s what the motoring public have come to expect from the auto care industry over the years, but especially in more recent times with many Americans facing the very real rise in their cost of living,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of the Auto Care Association. “The latest Joint Channel Forecast Model demonstrates this reality with the latest market figures surpassing expectations yet again.”

Key topics in the new report include:

  • Market-size projections in billions of dollars through 2026, along with year-over-year percent change
  • Sales dollars and market share for the retail, service and dealer channels
  • Key economic projections through 2026 such as GDP, consumer price index and the CPI for vehicle maintenance and repair
  • Forecasts for motor vehicle sales through 2026
  • Detailed factors influencing the growth in the aftermarket

“The automotive aftermarket continues to prove that it can succeed on two fronts: the longstanding production and manufacturing that gives the aftermarket its strong foundation, and the innovation and entrepreneurship that are required with the burgeoning technology changes and opportunities in transportation,” commented Paul McCarthy, president and CEO of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “This year’s Joint Channel Forecast provides an impressive outlook for the aftermarket and underscores the value of investment in this industry.”

The annual Joint Channel Forecast Model report gives an in-depth industry outlook with the latest and most reliable market projections, channel-performance analysis and emerging trends. The full report is intended to help provide further details about the factors influencing the growth of the auto care industry to help businesses make informed decisions, identify growth opportunities and optimize their market strategies.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit.

Auto Care members can access the Joint Channel Forecast report in the 2024 Auto Care Factbook at

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.

MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers can access the report at

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          For further information contact: Investor Relations Contacts   Mark Merz (417) 829-5878   Eric Bird (417) 868-4259       Media Contact   Sonya Cox (417) 829-5709      
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      (In thousands)                   For the Three Months Ended     March 31,      2024   2023 Operating activities:             Net income   $ 547,238     $ 516,885   Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:             Depreciation and amortization of property, equipment and intangibles     109,648       93,747   Amortization of debt discount and issuance costs     1,593       1,215   Deferred income taxes     2,374       3,393   Share-based compensation programs     7,022       7,435   Other     2,997       29   Changes in operating assets and liabilities:             Accounts receivable     (36,954 )     (2,610 ) Inventory     (92,042 )     (179,481 ) Accounts payable     6,107       172,701   Income taxes payable     140,025       145,441   Other     16,207       (44,991 ) Net cash provided by operating activities     704,215       713,764                 Investing activities:             Purchases of property and equipment     (249,240 )     (223,268 ) Proceeds from sale of property and equipment     3,853       2,704   Other, including acquisitions, net of cash acquired     (155,366 )     (956 ) Net cash used in investing activities     (400,753 )     (221,520 )               Financing activities:             Proceeds from borrowings on revolving credit facility     30,000       1,216,000   Payments on revolving credit facility     —       (661,000 ) Net payments of commercial paper     (310,805 )     —   Repurchases of common stock     (270,019 )     (1,111,461 ) Net proceeds from issuance of common stock     57,815       15,146   Other     (569 )     (354 ) Net cash used in financing activities     (493,578 )     (541,669 )               Effect of exchange rate changes on cash     248       714   Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents     (189,868 )     (48,711 ) Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the period     279,132       108,583   Cash and cash equivalents at end of the period   $ 89,264     $ 59,872                 Supplemental disclosures of cash flow information:             Income taxes paid   $ 9,798     $ 9,696   Interest paid, net of capitalized interest     34,671       26,531                      
      O’REILLY AUTOMOTIVE, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
      SELECTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION
      (Unaudited)                     For the Twelve Months Ended     March 31,  Adjusted Debt to EBITDAR:   2024   2023 (In thousands, except adjusted debt to EBITDAR ratio)             GAAP debt   $ 5,288,632   $ 4,927,678 Add: Letters of credit     137,848     116,688   Unamortized discount and debt issuance costs     28,368     27,322   Six-times rent expense     2,587,056     2,404,986 Adjusted debt   $ 8,041,904   $ 7,476,674               GAAP net income   $ 2,376,934   $ 2,207,655 Add: Interest expense     214,244     167,451   Provision for income taxes     650,786     635,159   Depreciation and amortization     424,962     368,757   Share-based compensation expense     27,098     27,360   Rent expense (i)     431,176     400,831 EBITDAR   $ 4,125,200   $ 3,807,213               Adjusted debt to EBITDAR     1.95     1.96    
      (i) The table below outlines the calculation of Rent expense and reconciles Rent expense to Total lease cost, per ASC 842, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, for the twelve months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023 (in thousands):   
                          For the Twelve Months Ended     March 31,     2024   2023 Total lease cost, per ASC 842   $ 510,208   $ 476,439 Less: Variable non-contract operating lease components, related to property taxes and insurance     79,032     75,608 Rent expense   $ 431,176   $ 400,831  
                            March 31,      2024   2023 Selected Balance Sheet Ratios:                 Inventory turnover (1)     1.7       1.7   Average inventory per store (in thousands) (2)   $ 773     $ 754   Accounts payable to inventory (3)     127.3 %     133.3 %  
                            For the Three Months Ended       March 31,        2024   2023 Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow (in thousands):             Net cash provided by operating activities   $ 704,215   $ 713,764 Less: Capital expenditures     249,240     223,268   Excess tax benefit from share-based compensation payments     16,120     4,378 Free cash flow   $ 438,855   $ 486,118  
                        For the Three Months Ended     March 31,         2024   2023 Revenue Disaggregation (in thousands):           Sales to do-it-yourself customers $ 2,001,986   $ 1,918,467 Sales to professional service provider customers     1,869,740     1,711,964 Other sales, sales adjustments, and sales from the acquired Vast Auto stores     104,514     77,433 Total sales   $ 3,976,240   $ 3,707,864  
                            For the Three Months Ended   For the Twelve Months Ended     March 31,    March 31,         2024   2023      2024   2023 Store Count:                 Beginning domestic store count   6,095   5,929     5,986     5,811   New stores opened   36   59     146     179   Stores closed   —   (2 )   (1 )   (4 ) Ending domestic store count   6,131   5,986     6,131     5,986                     Beginning Mexico store count   62   42     43     27   New stores opened   1   1     20     16   Ending Mexico store count   63   43     63     43                     Beginning Canada store count   —   —     —     —   Stores acquired   23   —     23     —   Ending Canada store count   23   —     23     —                     Total ending store count   6,217   6,029     6,217     6,029    
                                    For the Three Months Ended   For the Twelve Months Ended     March 31,    March 31,         2024   2023   2024   2023 Store and Team Member Information:                         Total employment     90,601     89,125             Square footage (in thousands) (4)     47,143     45,117             Sales per weighted-average square foot (4)(5)   $ 82.59   $ 81.09   $ 341.62   $ 328.29 Sales per weighted-average store (in thousands) (4)(6)   $ 634   $ 611   $ 2,601   $ 2,467  
      (1) Calculated as cost of goods sold for the last 12 months divided by average inventory. Average inventory is calculated as the average of inventory for the trailing four quarters used in determining the denominator. (2) Calculated as inventory divided by store count at the end of the reported period. (3) Calculated as accounts payable divided by inventory. (4) Represents O’Reilly’s U.S. and Puerto Rico operations only. (5) Calculated as sales less jobber sales, divided by weighted-average square footage. Weighted-average square footage is determined by weighting store square footage based on the approximate dates of store openings, acquisitions, expansions, or closures. (6) Calculated as sales less jobber sales, divided by weighted-average stores. Weighted-average stores is determined by weighting stores based on their approximate dates of openings, acquisitions, or closures.  
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