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Mapping Out the Future of the Global Aftermarket
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By Counterman
link hidden, please login to view, we took an in-depth look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the average vehicle age, highlighting their significant roles in shaping the automotive aftermarket. At the time of publication, we hinted at further exploration into other critical factors that influence our industry, and today, I’ll fulfill that promise by examining gas prices and vehicle miles traveled (VMT), two indicators that give a snapshot of the economy and provide professionals a means to predict the future of the aftermarket landscape.
First, let’s look at everyone’s favorite expense: gas prices.
The fluctuations in gasoline prices in the United States are more than mere figures at the fuel pump; they serve as barometers for a variety of factors, including economic health, geopolitical tensions, consumer confidence and the vitality of the automotive aftermarket sector. Gasoline stands as a relatively inelastic commodity, with demand showing little sensitivity to price changes. This is largely because a significant portion of vehicle use, estimated at about 30% for commuting purposes alone, is essential and non-negotiable for many individuals, according to a University of Michigan study. When considering additional driving for school-related activities, errands and other purposes, visits to the gas station are an inevitable aspect of daily life.
This inelastic nature of gasoline consumption implies that rising fuel prices compress consumer spending power and escalate operational costs for businesses reliant on transportation. Consequently, there’s a logical link between fuel costs and mileage traveled, especially for discretionary travel. Recent studies, including research by AAA, reinforce this connection, suggesting that as gas prices climb, individuals adjust their travel and lifestyle accordingly.
AAA released an article in July 2022 summarizing the aforementioned research that they conducted. The article showed that 64% of U.S. adults made changes to their driving habits and/or lifestyle since March 2022, at a time when gas prices were hovering around $4.30 and peaking at $5.03 in June 2022, with 23% of consumers making major changes. As illustrated in the article, of the 64% who reported they were making changes in their driving and lifestyle, 88% said they would drive less, 74% said they would try to combine errands, 56% said they would reduce shopping or dining out, and 30% reported they will delay major purchases.
Putting these sentiments into the context of the automotive aftermarket, less driving will put fewer miles on vehicles, leading to extended periods in between the 3,000-5,000 mile oil changes, roughly 6,000-mile alignments and factory scheduled maintenance around the 30,0000-, 50,000-, and 90,000-mile marks. Additionally, if people have less disposable income, they may put off repairs or standard maintenance like an oil change, further increasing the interval of vehicle maintenance.
However, while less driving may lead to extended periods between routine maintenance tasks such as oil changes, alignments and factory scheduled services initially, this shift in consumer behavior presents a silver lining for the automotive aftermarket. With people potentially delaying maintenance due to reduced disposable income, it stands to reason, vehicles are likely to be held onto for longer periods. This not only increases the likelihood of maintenance and repairs in the long term, but also signals a decrease in the purchase of new vehicles. As a result, the market could see an uptick in older, used vehicles that require more frequent servicing and do not receive warranty services (in other words, an increase in the use of vehicles within the aftermarket sweet spot). This scenario underscores the importance of the automotive aftermarket in supporting vehicle longevity and reliability, highlighting a potentially robust market for service shops and parts suppliers alike.
However, despite the intuitive connections and survey research, some reports, such as one from TIME, paint a different picture. Research analyzing fuel prices and American driving habits from 2000 to 2022 indicates that by June 24, 2022, U.S. gasoline consumption was nearly 8.93 million barrels per day, slightly below the 9 million daily average since 2000, showing a minor 1% drop. Conversely, gas prices soared to 90% above their average for that period.
The results of the TIME analysis will be partially corroborated by some of the charts presented in this article, but it is important to understand that the data presented for miles driven is in millions, so even small spikes on a chart will represent rather larger scaled changes.
To begin our deep dive, we start with Chart 1, which sources data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and reveals the trajectory of retail gasoline prices across several years, displaying a pattern of highs and lows that correspond with a multitude of external factors.
link hidden, please login to viewChart 1 As we observe the trend line from January 2014 to January 2024, we see a gradual increase with significant peaks and troughs. The trendline suggests a weak upward trend with considerable volatility, which can be attributed to a range of influences, from geopolitical events, supply disruptions, technological advancements and shifts in consumer behavior. While Chart 1 showing a decade of gas price fluctuations may not explicitly outline the impact on the automotive aftermarket as far as time is concerned (meaning that we can’t accurately predict the price of gas in a few years with time alone), the implications are significant. Higher gas prices can lead to increased demand for fuel-efficient aftermarket products or vehicles, as consumers look to optimize their vehicle’s performance.
Conversely, lower gas prices can result in more disposable income to pursue vehicle repairs or perhaps drive more in general, which will inevitably lead to a greater need for repairs and vehicle upkeep (more on that to come). Ultimately, whether gas prices rise or fall, the aftermarket can benefit from the resulting changes in consumer behavior, as vehicle owners seek to manage their operating costs or take advantage of economic conditions to use their vehicles more.
VMT: A Reflection of Changing Times
As previously stated, VMT can have a significant impact on the health of the automotive industry and the aftermarket. So, let’s jump into Chart 2, which showcases VMT data over the last 10 years, according to the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
This chart traces the VMT from January 2014 to October 2023, offering a graphical story of the nation’s driving habits.
link hidden, please login to viewChart 2 The data shows that simply counting on an increase in driving over time won’t work for predicting aftermarket service demand. Instead, aftermarket businesses should focus on the specific factors that influence driving habits, like economic trends such as inflation and cultural/societal trends such as remote work policies. This understanding is crucial for aftermarket businesses to effectively manage inventory, plan marketing and schedule services. Recognizing that vehicle use can vary widely, rather than following a steady climb, allows aftermarket companies to be more agile and meet their customers’ needs in real time.
Is There a Correlation Between Gas Prices and Vehicle Miles Driven?
Various reports and studies have highlighted a discernible link between gasoline prices and the distance traveled by drivers. However, a broader analysis of economic data reveals a more complex scenario. Despite the intuitive connection between fuel costs and driving behavior, the practical demands of daily life in America—such as commuting to work, school and other essential activities—often render the inclination to reduce driving due to higher gas prices moot. (See Chart 3 which integrates information from the preceding two charts.)
link hidden, please login to viewChart 3 While there’s a connection between gas prices and VMT, it’s relatively weak as indicated by the low correlation coefficient and the even smaller predictive regression score not presented, indicating the presence of other influential factors. For accurate market predictions, we must consider additional variables like geopolitical issues affecting oil supply, policy changes and shifts in oil demand, which can abruptly alter gas prices.
Similarly, VMT is influenced by factors such as public transportation availability, urban versus rural living patterns and societal shifts toward remote work or “walkable” cities. Changes in consumer preferences, such as a growing interest in environmentally friendly transportation options or online shopping, can also play a crucial role.
Therefore, automotive aftermarket professionals should consider integrating advanced analytics and diverse data sources into their decision-making processes. This could involve investing in resources that help analyze social, economic and political trends, alongside traditional market data. Engaging with experts in related fields, from energy economics to urban planning, can also enrich their strategic outlook. In summary, a proactive understanding of the diverse drivers behind market changes is essential to navigate the industry’s complexities, capitalize on opportunities and ensure lasting success in a constantly evolving market.
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By Counterman
MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers has elevated its commitment to the University of the Aftermarket Foundation (UAF) by achieving the status of a Gold Lifetime Trustee.
“The Gold Lifetime Trustee designation from the UAF is a recognition given to outstanding donors who significantly support the UAF’s mission of providing scholarships and educational opportunities to the next generation of aftermarket professionals,” UAF said in a news release.
Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, and Chris Gardner, senior vice president, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, both serve on the UAF board of trustees to further this collaboration and the mission of the foundation, UAF noted.
“MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers is deeply committed to fostering growth and excellence in the automotive aftermarket. Our engagement with the UAF is an essential step towards enriching the talent pool in our industry,” McCarthy said. “By investing in scholarships and educational programs, we aim to nurture a skilled workforce that can drive innovation and excellence. Our partnership with UAF is not just a contribution, but a commitment to the future of the automotive aftermarket.”
Roger McCollum, chairman of the UAF, added: “The involvement of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers with the University of the Aftermarket Foundation is a significant boost to our efforts. Their commitment as a Gold Lifetime Trustee brings valuable resources and insights that will greatly benefit our scholarship and education initiatives. This partnership is a testament to MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers’ dedication to the advancement of our industry.”
The University of the Aftermarket Foundation is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization. All contributions are tax-deductible to the extent provided by law. To learn more about the foundation, apply for a scholarship or grant, or make a donation, visit www.uofa-foundation.org.
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By Counterman
NTN Bearing Corp., the parent company of BCA Bearings and Bower Bearings, announced the addition of Kevin Huckins to the company’s automotive aftermarket sales team.
Huckins is joining NTN’s automotive aftermarket business unit as regional sales manager, Western region.
“We are thrilled to add Kevin to our sales management team,” said Charles Harris, vice president of sales & marketing – automotive aftermarket for NTN. “His in-depth knowledge of the automotive and heavy-duty aftermarkets are an important asset to our organization, and his experience in sales management and ability to navigate our multifaceted distribution channels make him the ideal candidate to take our western region to the next level. I welcome his energetic, get it done attitude, and look forward to empowering his success in this role.”
Huckins, who resides in the Seattle area, joins NTN with an extensive and successful background in sales management in the automotive and heavy-duty aftermarkets, NTN noted.
His experience includes 26 years as an area/regional sales manager for Tenneco on the automotive side, followed by six years as a regional manager for Industrial Parts Depot, where he focused on the heavy-duty aftermarket.
In his role as regional sales manager, Western region, Huckins will manage NTN’s multipronged sales efforts and sales-agency partners for the automotive aftermarket and heavy-duty aftermarket business segments.
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By Counterman
Genuine Parts Co. (GPC) reported full-year 2023 sales of $23.1 billion, a 4.5% year-over-year increase.
Net income was $1.3 billion, or $9.33 per diluted share, an increase of 12.3%.
Full-year net sales in the Automotive Parts Group, which includes NAPA Auto Parts, were $14.25 billion, up from $13.67 billion in 2022.
Fourth-quarter automotive sales were up nearly 1% to $3.5 billion.
While GPC’s international automotive businesses posted positive sales growth in local currency, the U.S. automotive segment saw a dip in sales, GPC President and COO Will Stengel noted during the company’s Feb. 15 conference call.
“In North America, while results fell short of our expectations, we remain focused on our strategic initiatives and continue to make solid progress,” GPC Chairman and CEO Paul Donahue said during the call. “We’ve undertaken a comprehensive review of the NAPA business to identify key issues, and we have taken action to improve the performance at NAPA. We are confident we are focused on the right initiatives to positively impact our performance in the quarters ahead.”
Coinciding with the release of its full-year and fourth-quarter 2023 financial results, GPC said the company is launching a global restructuring “to better align the company’s assets and further improve the efficiency of the business.”
The restructuring includes a voluntary retirement offer in the United States, along with “a rationalization and optimization of certain distribution centers, stores and other facilities,” according to the company.
Through the restructuring, GPC said it expects to realize approximately $20 million to $40 million of savings in 2024, and approximately $45 million to $90 million on an annualized basis. The company also expects to incur costs of approximately $100 million to $200 million related to the restructuring efforts in 2024 and will report the restructuring costs as a non-recurring expense.
“The primary objective of the global program is to continue to simplify and streamline our operations consistent with our overall business strategy,” Stengel explained during the conference call. “When we simplify, we increase the speed of local service, deliver operational productivity, improve the efficiency of our teams and reduce our overall cost to serve.”
Stengel noted that the restructuring initiative “is a similar playbook to our previous GPC program implemented in fall 2019 that delivered positive results.”
“Aspects of the restructuring are already in flight, and some will take place in the months ahead,” Stengel added.
Focus on NAPA
Stengel talked at length about efforts to revitalize GPC’s NAPA Auto Parts business.
GPC has identified three areas of improvement for NAPA: improving fill rates in key product categories, “operational rigor in our stores” and capitalizing on commercial growth opportunities, Stengel explained.
Adjustments to “certain key suppliers to improve fill rates” boosted fourth-quarter “category trends,” Stengel said, adding that “we’re encouraged by the positive momentum.”
“Second, our in-store service levels measured by on-time delivery to customers have significantly improved as a result of increased focused on last-mile operating disciplines,” Stengel said.
Stengel noted that efforts to improve commercial sales growth are “ongoing.” GPC recently appointed Tom Skov to the newly created role of executive vice president, sales & store operations, North America.
“He’s an automotive-parts expert and has a deep understanding of our customers field sales and store operations,” Stengel asserted. “We’re excited for the strong leadership Tom will bring to our sales and store operations field teams.”
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By Counterman
Photo caption: Devonte Wilson, a Congressional aide for U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson, visits MANN+HUMMEL’s manufacturing plant in Gastonia, North Carolina.
MANN+HUMMEL’s North American aftermarket brands – WIX Filters, Purolator Filters and MANN-FILTER – announced support for the Right-to-Repair campaign.
Spearheaded by the Auto Care Association, the initiative is focused on the passage of H.R. 906, the “Right to Equitable and Professional Auto Industry Repair (REPAIR) Act.” This bipartisan legislation provides the right for independent repair shops and aftermarket businesses to access critical information, tools and equipment needed to maintain and repair vehicles at a fair and reasonable cost.
Ultimately, the bill helps ensure the preservation of consumer choice, a fair marketplace and the continued safe operation of the nation’s 292 million registered passenger and commercial motor vehicles, 70% of which are maintained by independent repair facilities.
To support the campaign, representatives from MANN+HUMMEL’s North American leadership recently met with the legislative staff for U.S. Rep. Jeff Jackson of North Carolina’s 14th Congressional District to encourage passage of the legislation, which currently has 49 sponsors.
“Consumer choice is the pounding heartbeat of the aftermarket industry, and competition in the marketplace drives improved service and affordability,” said Daryl Benton, VP of sales & marketing – Aftermarket North America for MANN+HUMMEL. “The Right to Repair maintains a level playing field for independent repair shops and do-it-yourselfers as vehicle systems become increasingly complex and the cost of regular service and maintenance escalates.”
The Right-to-Repair movement has gained momentum in recent years. In November 2020, Massachusetts voters approved a ballot measure supporting a Right-to-Repair initiative with 75% of the vote, and Maine voters approved a similar ballot measure in November 2023 with over 80% of the vote.
In May 2021, the Federal Trade Commission published its “Nixing the Fix” report, which supported reinvigorated regulatory options and consumer education to provide consumers and independent repair shops with appropriate access to replacement parts, instructions, and diagnostic software.
Additionally, President Joe Biden issued an executive order on “Promoting Competition in the American Economy” in July 2021 to encourage the FTC to use its statutory authority in addressing anti-competitive repair restrictions.
To learn more about the Right-to-Repair campaign and access tools to engage with elected officials, visit
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