Parts Availability is the New Battleground

[Counterman]

Every counter pro has felt the shift. Cars are older, product sets are wider and customers expect the right part now. The difference today is that these pressures aren’t just an inconvenience at the counter. According to Morgan Stanley Managing Director Simeon Gutman, they are fast becoming the competitive line that separates the outperformers from everyone else.

Gutman, an equity analyst, spends his time inside stores, distribution centers, repair shops and boardrooms to see where the industry is heading. One trend came through clearly in his recent conversation on AMN DriveTime.

“The name of the game is more parts,” Gutman said. “The companies that do that the best are showing the most success.”

Behind that simple statement is a major shift in how retailers and distributors operate. The American car parc continues to age, drifting toward the 13-year mark. More years on the road means more failure-driven demand. But according to Gutman, the bigger challenge is complexity. More makes, more models, more OEM variations and more specialized parts are flooding the system. Shops expect availability. Drivers expect same-day turnaround. And, the stores that win are the ones closest to the customer with the deepest baskets of coverage.

“If you look since 2019 ‘til now, inventory per store has risen about 36 percent,” Gutman explained. “Distribution centers are getting bigger, more hubs, more mega hubs. They’re adding parts.”

That trend isn’t slowing. In fact, the data suggests the opposite. Gutman said retailers no longer aim to keep 80 percent of needed inventory nearby and fill gaps with hubs. That model isn’t fast enough for today’s installer. Stores that want to grow must think wider and deeper.

“They know what vintages, what vehicle parc within their local market, better than ever before,” he said. “And they’re sourcing to it.”

The Impact of AI

Artificial intelligence may accelerate that gap. Gutman noted that some companies are already using AI for catalog accuracy and stocking strategy. For counter pros and managers, the message is not about having AI tools tomorrow. It’s about understanding why data and feedback matter today. Store teams see gaps before anyone else. They hear the calls. They know the repeat requests. Their information powers smarter stocking and fewer missed sales.

As pricing pressures continue, availability becomes even more important. Tariff-driven increases are still flowing through the market, and customers may trade down in certain categories. But they won’t trade down on urgency. A failed alternator, wheel bearing or water pump still needs to be replaced today. That’s why Gutman still views the aftermarket as stable, despite economic uncertainty.

“At the end of the day, it’s either deferral or you pay,” he said. “There aren’t many other choices.”

The aftermarket remains steady. Demand remains strong. 

And the gap between those who invest in inventory and those who don’t is only getting wider.

For more insights from Gutman, watch his conversation with Bill Babcox on

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